National Reserve Bank of Tonga

Tu‘utu‘uni ki he Fokotu‘utu‘u Ngāue Fakapa‘anga - July 2022

Na‘e tali ‘e he Poate ‘a e kau Talēkita ‘o e Pangikē Pule Fakafonua ‘o Tonga´ ‘i he ‘enau fakataha ‘i he ‘aho 30 ‘o Sune 2022, ke kei hoko atu pē ‘a e ngaahi fokotu’utu’u ngāue fakapa‘anga lolotonga´ ‘o ngāue fakataha mo e Pule‘anga´ ke poupou‘i hono fakaakeake ‘a e ‘ekonōmika´ mo e tupu faka’ekonōmika fakalūkufua´. Ko e ngaahi fokotu’utu’u ngāue fakapa‘anga eni ‘oku ngāue’aki´:

Ke faka’ai’ai ‘a e tupu faka’ekonōmika´ mo hono poupou’i ‘a e fakaakeake fakalukufua faka’ekonōmika´, kae kei muimui’i ofi ‘a e ngaahi fakalakalaka felāve’i mo e hikihiki ‘a e totongi koloa´, ‘e fakahoko ‘e he Pangikē Pule´ ‘a e ngaahi fokotu’utu’u ngāue ko´ eni:

‘Ikai ke ngata ai´, kā ko hono tauhi ‘a e ma’uma’uluta, malu mo e lelei ‘a e tafa’aki fakapa’anga´ ‘o kaunga lelei ki he ma’uma’uluta mo e tupu faka‘ekonōmika fakalukufua´, ‘e ngāue atu ‘a e Pangikē Pule´ ki he ngaahi me’a ko´eni:

Na’e lipooti ‘e he Kōvana ‘o e Pangikē Pule´, Sione Ngongo Kioa, ‘oku kei hoko pē ‘a e hikihiki ‘a e totongi koloa΄ ‘a ia ko e palopalema fakamāmani lahi eni. ‘Oku makatu’unga heni ‘a hono fakamālohi’i (tighten) ange ‘e he ngaahi Pangikē Pule ‘o e ngaahi fonua muli lahi ‘a ‘enau ngaahi fokotu’utu’u ngāue fakapa‘anga´ ke holoki ‘aki e tupu faka’ekonomika ‘a honau ngaahi fonuaˊ kae lava ke holo ai mo e hikihiki ‘a e totongi koloaˊ. Ko hono ola´, ko e hiki lahi ‘a e ngaahi totongi tupu´ ‘i he ngaahi fonua lahi ‘oku tau fefakatau‘aki koloa mo ia´.

‘Oku kamata ‘asi mai ‘a e kake māmālie ‘a e ngaahi ngāue faka‘ekonōmika fakalotofonua´ ‘i Mē, tupu mei he ‘ikai ke toe hoko atu ha fakataputapui fakafonua (national lockdown), pea mo hono holoki atu ‘a e ngaahi fakataputapui felave‘i mo e Koviti-19´. ‘Oku ‘ilonga ‘a e kamata fakaakeake māmālie mai ‘a e sekitoa ngoue´ mei´ he fakatamaki Hunga Tonga – Hunga Ha‘apai´HTHH) ‘i he konga kimu’a ‘o e ta’u´, ‘i he lahi ange ‘o e ngoue ‘oku uta atu ki tu‘apule‘angaˊ ‘i he ngaahi māhina hokohoko mai kimui´ ni. Kaekehe, ‘oku kei si‘isi’i pē ‘a e ngaahi ngāue ‘i he sekitoa toutai´. ‘Oku kei poupoua ai pē ‘a e sekitoa fakatupu koloa´ ‘e he ngaahi polōseki ngāue langa fo’ou mei he fakatamaki HTHH´ ‘a ia ‘oku fakapa‘anga ‘e he Pule‘anga´, pehē ki he ngaahi ngāue langa taautaha´. ‘Oku tokoni foki ‘a e longomo’ui ‘a e sekitoa langa´ ki he tupu ‘a e sekitoa keli‘anga maka´ mo e maka koloa´. Na’e ola lelei foki ‘a e ngaahi ngāue ‘i he sekitoa ngāue´ ‘i he lolotonga ‘o e māhina´. Na’e poupou ki he tupu ‘a e sekitoa´ ‘a e lahi ange ‘a e ngāue‘aki (consumption) mo e fiema‘u koloa ‘a e ngaahi ‘api taautaha´ mo e ngaahi pisinisi´, kātoanga fakamanatu ‘o e māhina ki he ngaahi fāmili´, pea mo e foki ‘a e ngaahi pisinisi tokolahi ‘o hoko atu ‘enau fakahoko fatongiaˊ hili ‘a e ngaahi fakataputapui´. Ko e ngaahi fokotu’utu’u ke holoki ‘a e lōloa ‘o e taimi kolonitini ‘a e kau pasese mei muli´, mo hono teu fakaava ‘a e kau‘āfonua´ ki he fefolau‘aki´, ‘oku ‘amanaki te ne teke mālohi ‘a e ngaahi ngāue fefolau’aki´ ‘o tokoni ki he fakaakeake ‘a e sekitoa takimamata´ ‘i he kaha′u vave mai´.

Na‘e hiki ‘a e totongi koloa´ ‘aki ‘a e peseti ‘e 1.5 ‘i he māhina ko Mē ‘o makatu‘unga mei he totongi ‘o e lolo´, mo e totongi ‘o e me‘akai hū mai mei muli´ mo e fakalotofonua´. ‘I he ta’u´, na‘e hiki ‘a e totongi koloa΄ ki ha tu‘unga ma‘olunga fo‘ou ko e peseti ‘e 11.3 ‘o makatu‘unga mei he hiki ‘a e totongi ‘o e ngaahi koloa hū mai mei muli´ mo e fakalotofonua´ fakatou‘osi. Na’e hiki peseti ‘e 11.9 ‘a e totongi koloa hū mai mei muli´ makatu‘unga ‘i he ma’olunga ange ‘a e ngaahi totongi ‘o e koloa lolo´, koloa me‘akai´, koloa naunau langa´, pea mo e kasa´. Ko e ngaahi hikihiki ko ‘eni ‘oku makatu‘unga ia ‘i he ngaahi uesia ki he fakatupu mo e tufaki koloa fakamāmani lahi´, ‘a ia ‘oku ‘i tu‘a ia ‘i he mafai ‘o e Pangikē Pule΄. Na‘e hiki peseti ‘e 10.4 ‘a e e totongi koloa fakalotofonua΄ ‘o makatu‘unga ‘i he hiki ‘a e totongi ‘o e koloa me‘akai΄ mo e ‘uhila΄ ‘a ia ‘oku hā ai ‘a hono uesia ‘e he fakatamaki HTHH΄ ‘a e me’akai fakalotofonua΄, pea mo e hū hangatonu ‘a e hiki ‘a e totongi ‘o e lolo hū mai΄ ki he ngaahi totongi ‘uhila fakalotofonua΄. Ko e tu’unga ‘o e hikihikihi ‘a e ngaahi totongi koloa tefito´ (core inflation) na‘e peseti pē ‘e 7.5 (‘ikai kau ki ai ‘a e ngaahi totongi koloa lolo΄, ‘uhila΄, mo e kasa΄, mo e totongi ‘o e ngaahi koloa me’akai hū mai mei muli΄), ‘o ma’ulalo ange ia ‘i he hikihiki ‘a e totongi koloa fakalūkufua´.‘Oku mahino mei heni ko e totongi koloa lolo΄ ‘oku fakatefito mei ai ‘a e hikihiki ‘o e totongi koloa fakalukufua΄. ‘I he taimi tatau, ‘oku ma’olunga ange ‘a e totongi koloa tefito´ ‘i hono fakahoa ki he peseti ‘e 5.6 ‘i he māhina kuo‘osi´, ‘o ‘ilonga heni ‘oku faka’au ke toe lahi ange ‘a e ngaahi koloa kehe ange mei he koloa lolo´ mo e me’akai fakalotofonua´ kuo hiki hono totongi´.

Na’e holo ‘a e pa‘anga talifaki ‘i muli ‘a e fonua´ (foreign reserves) ‘i Mē ‘aki ‘a e $3.6 miliona ki he $880.4 miliona, ‘o fe’unga ia mo e māhina ‘e 12.4 ‘o e ngaahi koloa mo e ngāue hū mai´. ‘Oku kei ma’olunga pē eni ‘i he tu‘unga fe‘unga ‘oku siofi ‘e he Pangikē Pule´ ko e māhina ‘e 3 ‘o e koloa mo e ngāue hū mai´, pea mo e tu’unga fe’unga ‘oku fakafuofua’i ‘e he Kautaha Pa‘anga Fakavaha‘apule‘anga΄ (IMF), ko e māhina ‘e 7.3. ‘I he ta‘u´ ki Mē 2022´, na‘e kei kake lahi pē ‘a e tu‘unga ‘o e pa‘anga talifaki ‘i muli´ ‘aki ‘a e $190.9 miliona, makatu‘unga mei he lahi ange ‘a e ngaahi tokoni fakapa’anga ki he patiseti ‘a e Pule’anga´, ngaahi tokoni fakapa’anga ki he ngaahi fakatamaki´, ngaahi polōseki ‘a e Pule’anga΄, ngaahi pa’anga nō mei muli, pea mo e ngaahi talafi pa’anga taautaha´.

‘Oku kei malu pē ‘a e tafa’aki fakapa’anga´, ‘o poupou ki ai ‘a e ma’olunga e pa‘anga tefito (capital) mo e pa’anga ngāue (liquidity) ‘a e ngaahi pangikee´, pea kei ma’u pē mo e tupu fakapa‘anga (profitability) fe‘unga. Na‘e kake ‘a e pa‘anga ngāue ‘a e ngaahi pangikee´ ‘i he māhina´ mo e ta‘u´ fakatou‘osi ‘aki ‘a e peseti ‘e 2.2 mo e peseti ‘e 34.2 ‘o fakatefito ‘i he lahi ange ‘a e palanisi ‘o e ‘akauni ngāue ‘a e ngaahi pangikē fakakomēsiale´ ‘i he Pangikē Pule´. Na‘e holo ‘a e pa‘anga fakalūkufua ‘a e fonua´ (broad money) ‘aki ‘a e peseti ‘e 0.2 ‘i he māhina´ kā na’e kei kake peseti ‘e 16.3 ‘i he ta‘u´. ‘I he taimi tatau, na‘e lahi ange ‘a e ngaahi nō ne tuku atu ‘i Mē ‘o makatu‘unga mei he lahi ange ‘a e nō taautaha´ mo e nō pisinisi΄. Kaekehe, na’e kei holo pē ‘a e lahi ‘o e nō ne tuku atu ‘i he ta‘u´ ‘aki ‘a e peseti ‘e 3.4, kae tupu peseti ‘e 17.5 ‘a e fakahū pa‘anga΄. ‘I he’ene pehee΄, na‘e holo ‘a e lahi ‘o e ngaahi nō ne tuku atu´ ‘i hono fakahoa ki he lahi ‘o e fakahū pa‘anga´ (loans/deposit ratio) ki he peseti ‘e 53.6, ‘o kei ma‘ulalo pē eni ‘i he tu’unga ma’ulalo taha ‘oku tu’utu’uni’i´ ‘a ia ko e peseti ‘e 70. Na’e holo si’i ‘a e ngaahi nō palopalema´ ki he peseti ‘e 4.7 mei he peseti ‘e 4.8 ‘o e fakalukufua ‘o e ngaahi noo΄, makatu‘unga ‘i hono to’o atu ‘a e ngaahi no taautaha ‘e ni‘ihi mei he nō palopalema΄. Ka neongo ia, ‘oku kei ma’olunga pē ‘eni ‘i he peseti ‘e 4.0 ‘i Mē ‘o e ta’u kuo’osi´. Na‘e holo e ‘avalisi ‘o e hulu ‘i he totongi tupu ‘i he nō mo e fakahū pa‘anga´ (weighted average interest rate spread) ‘i he māhina´ ‘aki ‘a e poini peseti ‘e 1.46 ki he peseti ‘e 6.16, koe‘uhi´ ko e lahi ange ‘a e holo e ‘avalisi ‘a e totongi tupu ‘i he ngaahi nō ‘o fakahoa ki holo ‘a e ‘avalisi ‘a e totongi tupu ‘i he fakahū pa‘anga´. Kaekehe, ne hiki ‘a e ‘avalisi ‘o e hulu ‘i he totongi tupu ‘i he nō mo e fakahū pa‘anga´ ‘i he ta‘u´ ‘aki ‘a e poini peseti ‘e 43.24 ‘o makatu‘unga ‘i he holo hokohoko ‘a e ‘avalisi ‘o e totongi tupu ‘i he fakahū pa‘anga´, fakataha mo e kake ‘a e ‘avalisi ‘o e totongi tupu ‘i he ngaahi noo΄.

Hili ‘a e holo peseti ‘e 2.7 ‘a e tupu faka‘ekonōmika ‘a e fonua΄ ‘i he ta’u fakapa’anga 2020-21´, ‘oku fakafuofua ‘e he Pangikē Pule΄ ‘e toe holo pē mo e ta’u fakapa’anga 2021-22΄ koe’uhi ko e ngaahi uesia mei he fakatamaki HTHH mo e mafola ‘a e ‘Omikoloni΄. ‘Oku ‘amanaki ‘e hokohoko atu pē ‘a e ‘i he tu’unga ma’olunga ‘a e hikihiki ‘o e totongi koloa΄ ‘o a’u ki he 2023 koe‘uhi΄ ko e ngaahi uesia mei he tau ‘i ‘Iukuleini´, tātāpuni fakafonua ‘a Siaina´, pea mo e fetō‘aki ‘a e lahi ‘o e fiema‘u koloa´ ‘o fakahoa ki he fakatupu koloa´. ‘I he taimi tatau, ‘oku kei hokoatu pē ‘a e ngāue ‘a hotau ngaahi hoa fefakatau’aki lalahi΄ ki hono tau’i e hikihiki ‘a e totongi koloa΄ ‘aki ‘enau ngaahi fokotu’utu’u ngāue fakapa’anga΄, ‘a ia ‘e hū mai ia ki he totongi koloa fakalukufua ‘a Tonga΄ ni ‘i he ngaahi koloa hū mai΄. ‘Oku fakafuofua ‘e ‘i he tu’unga fakafiemālie pē ‘a e pa’anga talifaki ‘i muli ‘a e fonua΄ pea ‘i he tu‘unga fe‘unga ke lava ‘o matu‘uaki ha fakatamaki fakafokifā ‘e hoko. ‘Oku toe fakafuofua foki ‘e malu pē ‘a e tafa’aki fakapa‘anga΄ pea fe‘unga pē mo e ngaahi pa‘anga tefito ‘a e ngaahi pangikee´ ke matu’uaki ha fakatamaki ‘e ala hoko ki he tafa’aki fakapa’anga΄.

Makatu‘unga ‘i he fakafuofua ‘e holo ‘a e tupu faka‘ekonōmika΄ pea mo e ngaahi fokotu’utu’u ngāue fakaakeake ‘a e Pule‘anga΄, ‘oku tauhi pē ‘e he Pangikē Pule΄ ‘ene fokotu’utu’u ngāue fakapa’anga lolotonga΄, kae fengāue‘aki vāofi mo e ngaahi fokotu‘utu‘u ngāue ‘a e Pule‘anga´ ki hono fakaakeake ‘a e tupu faka‘ekonōmika΄ mo ta’ota’ofi ha toe ngaahi uesia tamaki ‘e ala hoko. ‘Oku tokanga ‘a e Pangikē Pule´ ki he hikihiki ‘a e totongi koloa´ pea ‘oku hoko atu pē ‘a e fekumi mo e talatalanoa ki ha ngaahi founga te ne malava ke ta‘ota‘ofi ‘ ‘a e hiki ‘a e totongi koloa fakalukufua΄ pea ‘ikai ke ne fakafepaki’i ‘a e taumu’a ngāue ‘a e Pule’anga´ ki hono fakaakeake ‘a e ‘ekonōmika´. ‘I he taimi tatau, ‘oku tu‘u mateuteu ‘a e Pangikē Pule´ ke liliu ‘ene fokototu’utu’u ngāue fakapa‘anga´ ‘o kapau ‘e ‘ikai kei lava mapule’i ‘a e hikihiki ‘a e totongi koloa´.

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Pangike Pule Fakafonua ‘o Tonga
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