National Reserve Bank of Tonga

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Audited Financial Statement for Financial Year 2023/2024

 

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* Prior to Financial Year 2022/23, the Audited Financial Statements are incorporated into their respective Annual Reports.


Asia: Sailing in Turbulent Times

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Category: Publications

Asian economies are sailing in choppy waters, facing severe headwinds from an uncertain and challenging global environment. First, the global recovery has been uneven and weaker than expected. On top of that, global trade has been sluggish and financial conditions have been volatile. The rise of China as a global economic superpower has also created challenges of its own ...

IMF Article IV Consultations

IMF or The International Monetary Fund is an organization of 188 countries, working to foster global monetary cooperation, secure financial stability, facilitate international trade, promote high employment and sustainable economic growth, and reduce poverty around the world.

Extracted from the IMF official website. Find out more about the IMF by clicking here.

STAFF REPORT FOR THE 2016 ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION | Released on 26 May 2016

Key Issues

Outlook and risks. Since FY2013, Tonga has been on a growth path supported by the reconstruction in the aftermath of the 2014 Cyclone Ian, tourism, and remittances, and benefiting from low global fuel prices. In the medium term, growth is projected to be driven by economic activity in preparation to the Sixteenth South Pacific Games (the SPG) in 2019, while inflation is expected to remain low. International reserves are expected to remain at a comfortable level, supported by strong donor inflows, high remittances, and low costs of fuel imports. After weakening in FY2016 as a result of strong wage growth, the fiscal position is projected to improve gradually in the medium-term. Main risks to the outlook stem from a protracted period of slower growth in advanced and emerging economies, natural disasters, and fiscal pressure to raise government wages or as a result of cost overruns for the SPG and shortfalls in donor aid.

Challenges. The main challenge for Tonga in the medium term is to improve its growth potential and to create jobs for the young population, which would require expanding opportunities for private sector development. Given Tonga’s vulnerabilities stemming from its small size, remoteness, narrow export base, dependence on fuel imports, and exposure to natural disasters, ensuring macroeconomic and financial stability will remain a key challenge.

Key policy advice Tonga needs to improve resilience to shocks by building buffers and to undertake structural reforms to support private sector development and economic diversification. The key policy recommendations are: (i) contain wage growth and build sound fiscal position by gradually increasing the primary balance to ensure fiscal sustainability; (ii) maintain gross reserves at the current level to bolster resilience to shocks; (iii) lower the current inflation reference rate; (iv) strengthen monetary policy framework, including by introducing a policy interest rate and associated instruments, and develop macroprudential tools to better manage liquidity and credit cycle; and (v) enhance business-enabling structural reforms and improve efficiency of the public sector to raise growth potential.

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IMF Article IV Archives

Monetary Policy Statement

To comply with the NRBT Act s50A, the Bank is to publish a Monetary Policy Statement at least every six months.  Each statement is a review of economic developments and the conduct of monetary policy in the period since the previous statement.  This statement indicates how the Bank intends to conduct monetary policy over the coming six months to achieve its objectives of maintaining sufficient foreign reserves and promoting price stability.

Monetary Policy Statement
August 2024

The Tonga Department of Statistics published preliminary estimates for Tonga’s GDP for financial year (FY) 2022 indicating an unexpected resilience and achieving a slight growth of 0.05% despite the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Hunga Tonga – Hunga Ha‘apai volcanic eruption. The Reserve Bank estimates FY2023 to have experienced a stronger rebound of 2.4% on the back of a strong service sector as the borders reopened and businesses recovered. However, growth is expected to ease to 1.6% in FY2024, a downward revision from the 2.2% in the previous Monetary Policy Statement due to impact of the El Nino on the agriculture sector and delays in major infrastructure projects. Key challenges include labour shortages and a much more persistent food supply shortage. The agriculture sector faces difficulties with labour constraints and the impact of natural disasters. The services sector is showing positive signs with increased tourism and domestic consumption but tourism infrastructure needs improvement as it still has not recovered from the tsunami and the pandemic. Looking forward, the Reserve Bank forecasts growth for FY2025 to be around 2.7% from a rebound in agricultural production and greater implementation of public construction projects before reverting towards long-term growth. Foreign reserves remain comfortable, but challenges such as debt servicing and potential capital outflows need to be managed. The Reserve Bank is monitoring inflation closely and stand ready to implement measures to address inflationary pressures should high inflation continue.

Overall, Tonga's economy is on a path of recovery but faces significant challenges that require ongoing monitoring and both monetary and fiscal policy responses.

  • Inflationary pressures remain a significant concern, with headline inflation edging above the 5% reference rate in June 2024 to 5.4%. However, the increase was due mainly to domestic food prices growing by more than 24% in June 2024 on the back of a 23% annual increase in June 2023. Though inflation is analysed to be transitory in nature, it may hover above the reference rate during 2024 if supply constraints persist. The Reserve Bank stands ready to implement measures to mitigate inflationary impacts should core inflation surprise on the high end compared to Reserve Bank’s forecast and expectation.
  • Foreign reserves remained at comfortable levels by the end of June 2024 at $924.3 million, which is sufficient to cover 11.9 months of imports. However, ongoing debt servicing and potential capital outflows necessitate prudent management.
  • The financial sector remains stable, with adequate capital and liquidity. However, there are compliance challenges with one of the commercial banks in the banking system.
  • Credit growth of 4.1% was recorded for the year to June 2024, which was slower than expected. The continual high non-performing loans remains a concern. The Reserve Bank is implementing enhanced risk-based tools to ensure further risks to banks’ asset quality are mitigated. The ongoing efforts to develop a credit registry will also help to monitor risks of household and corporate indebtedness, a tool for mitigating risks of rising non-performing loans. While the Reserve Bank is committed to promoting financial inclusion and supporting the growth of key economic sectors through greater credit accessibility, policies and controls are in place to ensure prudent lending by financial institutions is maintained.
  • The persistently high level of excess liquidity in the banking system undermines effective monetary policy transmission. Relatively low term deposit rates and limited trading activities in the Government bond market continue, while the interbank and repo market remain inactive.
  • Tonga's economy faces significant challenges due to its small size, geographic isolation, and susceptibility to external shocks. These factors, coupled with vulnerabilities to natural hazards, labour shortages, and data constraints, hinder economic growth and development. Additionally, the country's reliance on remittances and potential impacts from de-risking and de-banking pose further risks.

To sustain economic growth and stability, Tonga must address challenges related to labour shortages, infrastructure development, and climate change. Diversifying the economy and enhancing its resilience to external shocks are crucial for long-term prosperity.

Monetary Policy Statement Releases

Demand Side Survey

Released on 16 August 2017 | Download the complete report| pdfIcon 1.8 MB

This report describes the level of financial access in Tonga — the fourth Pacific Islands Regional Initiative (PIRI )1 country to move forward with a financial inclusion demand side survey (DSS) effort. DSS surveys were previously completed in Samoa, Fiji and the Solomon Islands. The survey was conducted in the first quarter of 2016 and includes indicators from the 2014 World Bank Global Findex surveys as well as the Global Partnership for Financial Inclusion (GPFI) indicators.

A long process led to the completion of the DSS in the Pacific region: In 2013 the members of PIRI jointly undertook a review of available data and measurement exercises with which they could design and evaluate their national financial inclusion strategies and their Maya Declaration commitments under the Alliance for Financial Inclusion (AFI). As part of this exercise, PIRI members agreed to adopt not only the core set of AFI financial inclusion indicators but to expand that set, as well. The members further committed to carrying out a DSS to capture those indicators.

In general, the Tonga DSS, like the surveys in the other PIRI countries, was designed to capture financial inclusion indicators that would be comparable across the region and globally. Importantly, these were the first such surveys in each country.

The National Reserve Bank of Tonga (NR BT) and its PIRI partners understand that “financial inclusion” incorporates not only individuals’ access to and usage of formal financial services, but also how those services fit into individuals’ lives — the quality that those services deliver. More attention and research needs to be devoted to this quality dimension in Tonga and the other PIRI partners — more than could be achieved in this first round of surveys. Still, this report presents valuable evidence of how Tongans use financial services, alone and in combination. This is information that is impossible to learn from supply-side sources alone.

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